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12

Theo's Thunder

4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 78

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 25/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m39y 123 · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 77 par25/01C8OR 77C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m39y Gd 120 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 77 par28/02C8OR 77C7 @ Charles Town 29/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 74 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Charles Town 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 7f 124 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 71 par5/04C8OR 71C8 @ Charles Town 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 1m110y Fas 126 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Charles Town 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m110y Fas 126 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 70 par6/06C8OR 70C8 @ Charles Town 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 69 · 7f Fas 126 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Charles Town 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 72 par24/07C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Charles Town?6th6th0
2026-06-27Charles Town?4th4th0
2026-06-06Charles Town?5th5th0
2026-05-15Charles Town?3rd3rd0
2026-04-05Charles Town?1st1st0
2026-03-29Charles Town?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0129/036/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
14/02/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
28/02/20267th9/153%33%-0.19
29/03/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
05/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/05/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
06/06/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
27/06/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
24/07/20266th16/116%17%+0.01