11
Uncle William
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 83
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 38% | -0.53 |