13
Why Not Me
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 13 · OR 65
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 24/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |