5
Alpha Cat
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Belmont Park | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2024 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 24/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |