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5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 75
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |