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6

Hope She Comes

6yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 57

Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 06/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 63 par6/10C6OR 63C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 6f 125 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 63 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 58 · 5f110y 125 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 58 par25/05C6OR 58C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 53 · 6f 125 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 53 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 6f Fas 125 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 50 par24/06C9OR 50C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f 120 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 56 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 55 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 55 par19/08C9OR 55C9 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 54 · 6f 125 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 54 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f 125 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 par21/09C9OR 55projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Presque Isle Downs?5th8th−3
2026-09-09Presque Isle Downs?4th7th−3
2026-08-19Presque Isle Downs?3rd6th−3
2026-07-22Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-24Presque Isle Downs?5th8th−3
2026-06-10Presque Isle Downs?5th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1010/0619/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20256th40/10%0%0.00
21/10/20254th20/10%67%+0.67
25/05/20268th25/10%0%0.00
10/06/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
24/06/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
22/07/20264th40/10%57%+0.57
19/08/20263rd7/163%33%-0.30
09/09/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
21/09/20265th14/126%33%+0.07