3
Wetlands Willy
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 66
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 28/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |