Heavy Pour
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 99
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/07/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 30/08/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |