3
John Dutton
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 101
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |