Desperate Proposal
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 03/08/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 01/09/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 10% | -0.61 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |