IvyArcIvyArc
6

Freestate

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 86

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 13/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS13/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 01/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 94 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 94 parC6 @ Saratoga 29/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 47 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 47 par29/08C6OR 47C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 61 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 61 parC6 @ Keeneland 25/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m1f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 69 par25/10C6OR 69C9 @ Turfway Park 11/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 71 · 6f 120 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 71 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 6f 120 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 72 par29/07C9OR 72C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m70y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 80 par23/09C5OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Presque Isle Downs?4th1st+3
2026-09-01Presque Isle Downs?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-29Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2025-12-11Turfway Park?7th8th−1
2025-10-25Keeneland?6th4th+2
2025-09-19Presque Isle Downs?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0719/0929/0723/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20256th16/116%17%+0.01
01/08/20256th5/287%29%-0.58
29/08/20253rd25/10%75%+0.75
19/09/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
25/10/20256th20/10%55%+0.55
11/12/20257th9/153%40%-0.13
29/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
01/09/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
23/09/20264th10/147%40%-0.07