5
Outhustle
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 95
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 18/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |