4
Span Of Control
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 84
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 30/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |