IvyArcIvyArc
4

All About Me

6yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 75

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Fair Grounds 21/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 82 par21/11C7OR 82C8 @ Fair Grounds 12/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 80 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 80 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 04/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 80 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 80 par4/01C7OR 80C7 @ Fair Grounds 25/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 81 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Fair Grounds 12/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 85 · 6f 121 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 85 par12/02C8OR 85C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 84 par17/05C8OR 84C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 24/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 77 · 6f 123 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 77 par14/09C8OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-08-24Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2026-05-17Churchill Downs?7th7th0
2026-04-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-02-12Fair Grounds?5th5th0
2026-01-25Fair Grounds?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1125/0117/0514/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/202510th20/10%10%+0.10
12/12/20258th16/116%0%-0.16
04/01/20268th25/10%30%+0.30
25/01/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
12/02/20265th6/492%43%-0.49
29/04/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
17/05/20267th50/10%14%+0.14
24/08/20265th9/488%43%-0.45
14/09/20261st15/890%100%+0.10