4
Equinamous
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |