5
Needed
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |