3
Taco Cat Backwards
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |