Tough Workout

8yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 74

Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-21	Colonial Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-09	Colonial Downs	?	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-07-22	Colonial Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-26	Laurel Park	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-06	Laurel Park	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-05-30	Laurel Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength80%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/11/2025	3rd	9/2	76%	78%	+0.01
24/04/2026	6th	20/1	0%	55%	+0.55
15/05/2026	5th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34
30/05/2026	6th	11/2	71%	44%	-0.27
06/06/2026	8th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
26/06/2026	7th	25/1	0%	25%	+0.25
22/07/2026	6th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
09/08/2026	10th	25/1	0%	18%	+0.18
21/08/2026	5th	20/1	0%	50%	+0.50