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9

Crazy Plan

3yo Filly · 10-7 · Draw 11 · OR 52

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice runner-up in all-weather handicaps this summer but she failed to beat a rival in handicap at Windsor (11.5f, good) 22 days ago. Has a bit to prove now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 22/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0955 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 1m1y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS2/1254 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS25/0546 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 51 · 1m4f51y Std 124 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 51 par14/076OR 516 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 54 par11/086OR 546 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 54 par22/086OR 546 @ Windsor 14/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m3f99y Goo 126 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 53 par14/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Windsor611th11th0
2026-08-22Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-11Lingfield64th4th0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-05-25Leicester410th8th+2
2025-12-02Lingfield511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0914/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -13.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20257th20/10%45%+0.45
02/12/202511th150/10%0%0.00
25/05/202610th200/10%18%+0.18
14/07/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
11/08/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
22/08/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
14/09/202611th3/184%0%-0.84