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6

Different Drum

5yo Gelding · 10-13 · Draw 1 · OR 52

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored over hurdles at Carlisle and posted a solid third of 11 in handicap here later in April. Not dismissed after a break though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength83%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 18/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 57 · 2m56y Std 134 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 57 par18/116OR 576 @ Southwell 26/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 57 · 2m102y Std 153 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Southwell 03/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 55 · 2m102y Std 132 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 55 par3/016OR 554 @ Huntingdon 22/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f171y Sft 162 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Doncaster 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m128y GS 158 · HIGHER CLASS5/0244 @ Huntingdon 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f171y Hvy 161 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Huntingdon 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 84 · 2m4f145y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 84 par11/035OR 845 @ Carlisle 04/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 84 · 2m3f61y Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 84 par6 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 52 · 2m102y Std 132 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 52 par28/046OR 52projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-28Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-04-04Carlisle51st0th+1
2026-03-11Huntingdon53rd2nd+1
2026-02-19Huntingdon46th4th+2
2026-02-05Doncaster45th3rd+2
2026-01-22Huntingdon49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1122/0111/0328/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/202510th17/255%25%-0.30
26/11/20258th9/276%36%-0.40
03/01/202610th25/10%0%0.00
22/01/20269th300/10%47%+0.47
05/02/20265th300/10%64%+0.64
19/02/20266th25/10%38%+0.38
11/03/20263rd40/10%85%+0.85
04/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
28/04/20263rd15/261%80%+0.19