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Stitching Wheel

4yo Filly · 11-2 · Draw 2 · OR 55

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Redcar in June and in good nick since, making effort earlier than ideal when fifth of 6 in handicap at Newmarket (1¾m, good to firm) in August. Well in the mix eased 1 lb with Simon Walker in the saddle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m4f13y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 68 par28/104OR 684 @ Catterick 21/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 63 · 1m4f13y Goo 133 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 63 par8/046OR 635 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 59 · 2m Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m4f13y Gd 135 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 55 par11/056OR 556 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 2m56y Std 135 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 1m5f218y Gd 124 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 52 par20/066OR 526 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 56 · 1m7f217y Goo 135 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 56 · 1m6f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 56 par8/085OR 56projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Newmarket55th4th+1
2026-07-19Redcar62nd2nd0
2026-06-20Redcar61st1st0
2026-05-19Newcastle66th6th0
2026-05-11Catterick67th7th0
2026-04-25Ripon57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1025/0420/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20258th66/10%0%0.00
21/11/20255th150/10%33%+0.33
08/04/20266th33/10%29%+0.29
25/04/20267th80/10%0%0.00
11/05/20267th50/10%54%+0.54
19/05/20266th18/15%17%+0.11
20/06/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
19/07/20262nd7/491%67%-0.24
08/08/20265th9/153%20%-0.33