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10

West Sleekburn Lad

3yo Gelding · 10-6 · Draw 4 · OR 51

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced son of Golden Horn who took a big step forward on his handicap bow when winning 11-runner event at Newcastle (1½m) 17 days ago. Up 5 lb but he's a player with this longer trip a likely plus and Eireann Cagney up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/1054 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f43y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0644 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f218y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS1/0846 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 45 · 1m4f98y Std 126 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 45 par19/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-01Thirsk43rd1st+2
2026-06-05Doncaster48th6th+2
2025-10-18Catterick510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/105/061/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +15.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/202510th66/10%0%0.00
05/06/20268th200/10%0%0.00
01/08/20263rd300/10%50%+0.50
19/09/20261st13/266%100%+0.34