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Zafaan

6yo Gelding · 11-1 · Draw 3 · OR 49

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform
5lbs

Commentary

In fine form of late, following up hurdles win at Worcester with very easy success in 10-runner handicap at Wolverhampton (1¾m) 8 days ago. Big shout under a penalty with Henry Callan up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Sedgefield 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 103 · 2m178y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 103 par30/095OR 1035 @ Uttoxeter 17/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 103 · 1m7f168y Gd 167 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 103 par5 @ Plumpton 17/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m7f195y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 105 par17/115OR 1056 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 1m2f23y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 50 · 1m2f23y GF 128 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 50 par8/076OR 506 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 102 · 2m Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 102 par23/085OR 1024 @ Worcester 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 2m Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 102 par6 @ Wolverhampton 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 49 · 1m5f219y Std 132 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 49 par28/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-09-04Worcester41st-1th+2
2026-08-23Worcester52nd1st+1
2026-08-01Lingfield65th5th0
2026-07-08Yarmouth64th4th0
2026-06-26Yarmouth61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0926/0623/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20253rd14/126%80%+0.54
17/10/20252nd8/158%83%+0.25
17/11/20255th17/255%43%-0.12
26/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/07/20264th5/287%50%-0.37
01/08/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
23/08/20262nd22/10%92%+0.92
04/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
28/09/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06