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Black Gin

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 13

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bookmaker Comparison EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mayson filly took a step forward from her debut with fourth of 5 in novice at Ayr (7f, heavy) 17 days ago. May do better still.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f GS 12831/0842 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 7f50y Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/092projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr24th2nd+2
2026-08-31Ripon47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +10.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20267th50/10%14%+0.14
19/09/20264th20/10%25%+0.25