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8

Crafty Blue

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 1 · OR 72

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled her tally in 6f handicap at Leicester in July. Has continued in good form, twice runner-up before fifth of 12 in handicap at Windsor (1m, good) 22 days ago. Holds solid claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 28/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0845 @ Southwell 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1285 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m GS 134 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 73 par17/045OR 735 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m Sta 133 · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 70 par19/065OR 706 @ Leicester 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f212y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 69 par8/085OR 694 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f12y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Windsor 14/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m31y Goo 132 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 72 par14/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Windsor55th5th0
2026-08-29Windsor42nd1st+1
2026-08-08Haydock52nd2nd0
2026-07-22Leicester61st2nd−1
2026-06-19Newmarket59th9th0
2026-05-06Kempton59th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/086/058/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength68%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20257th50/10%40%+0.40
29/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
17/04/20269th9/276%20%-0.56
06/05/20269th40/10%0%0.00
19/06/20269th14/126%11%-0.15
22/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
08/08/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
29/08/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
14/09/20265th7/163%64%+0.00