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11

Dream Illusion

4yo Filly · 9-1 · Draw 4 · OR 64

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 1m winner here early in 2026. Good second at Wolverhampton (7f) in August but well held both runs since, ninth of 12 in 1m handicap here latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 68 par5/045OR 685 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m Gd 142 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 68 par15/055OR 685 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 68 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f3y GF 140 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 68 par8/075OR 685 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m14y Std 139 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 66 · 7f36y Std 136 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 66 par17/085OR 665 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 66 · 6f212y Hvy 136 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m13y Std 137 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 65 par17/096OR 65projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell69th10th−1
2026-09-04Haydock59th9th0
2026-08-17Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-08-06Southwell58th8th0
2026-07-08Yarmouth54th4th0
2026-06-04Wetherby52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/044/0617/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20266th3/184%29%-0.56
29/04/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
15/05/202612th11/142%8%-0.34
04/06/20262nd20/10%89%+0.89
08/07/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
06/08/20268th10/382%30%-0.52
17/08/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
04/09/20269th9/153%11%-0.42
17/09/20269th4/179%27%-0.52