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4

Korbut

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 73

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proving very consistent and gained a deserved breakthrough success in maiden at Ffos Las (7f) in August. Solid efforts back in handicap company since when second over 7f here and fifth of 10 at Wolverhampton (6f) 18 days ago. Ought to be in the shake-up once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/0444 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 5f212y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 74 par11/064OR 744 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f36y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 72 par17/074OR 724 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 73 · 7f80y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 73 par21/084OR 735 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 7f15y Std 133 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 73 · 6f20y Std 136 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 73 par18/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton55th5th0
2026-09-03Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-08-21Ffos Las41st0th+1
2026-07-27Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton42nd1st+1
2026-07-02Kempton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/042/0721/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -9.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86
17/04/20265th28/10%50%+0.50
11/06/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
02/07/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32
17/07/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
27/07/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
21/08/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
03/09/20262nd7/491%88%-0.03
18/09/20265th4/179%56%-0.23