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2

Ormolulu

6yo Mare · 9-10 · Draw 5 · OR 73

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 5-time course winner. Best effort of the campaign when second at Newcastle (6f) in September but failed to build on it with ninth of 13 in 6f handicap here 10 days ago. Often a slow starter and needs things to drop her way.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 82 · 6f16y Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 82 par28/084OR 823 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 82 · 7f14y Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 6f16y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 80 par3/114OR 804 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR 79 · 7f Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 79 par15/054OR 794 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 77 · 7f Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 5f182y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 75 par9/074OR 754 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 73 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 74 · 6f17y Std 133 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 74 par26/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Southwell59th9th0
2026-09-05Newcastle42nd1st+1
2026-07-09Carlisle45th4th+1
2026-06-16Thirsk47th6th+1
2026-05-15York410th9th+1
2026-04-25Leicester45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0825/049/0726/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength18%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20256th4/179%62%-0.17
21/09/20257th14/126%25%-0.01
03/11/20253rd3/184%78%-0.06
25/04/20265th17/255%33%-0.22
15/05/202610th25/10%57%+0.57
16/06/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
09/07/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
05/09/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
26/09/20269th7/163%33%-0.30