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7

Piazza

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 10 · OR 72

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive sort who opened her account at Kempton (7f) in August and has finished runner-up at Yarmouth (1m) and Wolverhampton (7f) since, edged out only late on latter occasion having been forced wide home turn. Big shout off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 16/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f16y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0645 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 1284 @ Sandown 30/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 71 · 7f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 71 par30/084OR 715 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 67 · 7f Sta 130 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f3y Goo 135 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 65 par16/076OR 656 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 63 · 7f80y Gd 134 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Kempton 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 65 · 7f Sta 130 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 65 par19/085OR 656 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 71 · 1m3y GS 142 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 72 par15/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-08-30Yarmouth62nd3rd−1
2026-08-19Kempton51st1st0
2026-08-04Ffos Las62nd3rd−1
2026-07-16Epsom Downs67th8th−1
2026-06-29Kempton55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0629/0619/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/20253rd7/491%60%-0.31
07/08/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
30/08/20254th15/261%25%-0.36
29/06/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
16/07/20267th11/271%14%-0.57
04/08/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
19/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
30/08/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07
15/09/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06