12
Ten Clarets
2yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 9 · OR 76
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Top UK Bookmakers EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 23/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 89% | -0.07 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 13/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |