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5

Black Orchid

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 2 · OR 67

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ardad filly is proving consistent and was runner-up for the fourth time in 6-runner novice here (5f) 33 days ago. Winner has gone in again since so she's not out of things on her handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0544 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0644 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0844 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 67 · 4f215y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 67 par3/094OR 67projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-08-16Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-06-04Wetherby42nd1st+1
2026-05-17Ripon42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/054/0616/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -7.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05
04/06/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
16/08/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
03/09/20262nd4/696%80%-0.16