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4

Clementines Star

3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 11 · OR 68

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who got off the mark in 7f maiden at Thirsk in July. Solid third in handicap at Chepstow (7f) next time but came in last of 10 in the mud at Haydock (7f) latest. Could bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f Std 12819/0954 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/1145 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Goo 12613/0655 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 126 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 65 par5/075OR 655 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 69 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 69 par16/075OR 695 @ Chepstow 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 7f16y GF 134 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 69 par6/085OR 695 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 69 · 6f212y Hvy 135 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 69 par4/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock510th10th0
2026-08-06Chepstow53rd3rd0
2026-07-16Thirsk51st1st0
2026-07-05Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-06-13Bath53rd3rd0
2025-11-17Newcastle43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/095/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 79/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20253rd11/271%82%+0.11
17/11/20253rd11/271%60%-0.11
13/06/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43
05/07/20262nd17/255%91%+0.36
16/07/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
06/08/20263rd1/195%67%-0.28
04/09/202610th8/158%0%-0.58