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10

Fantasy Obsessor

4yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 8 · OR 62

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now thirteen runs since her last success in 2025 but she posted a creditable second of 12 to a thriving one in handicap over C&D last time. This C&D winner needs considering.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 70 par15/044OR 703 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 137 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 65 par18/055OR 655 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 4f214y Std 138 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 65 par18/065OR 655 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 65 · 6f3y GF 137 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f3y GF 137 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 65 par8/075OR 654 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 62 · 6f16y Std 127 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 62 par31/085OR 62projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-07-24Ascot45th4th+1
2026-07-08Yarmouth57th7th0
2026-06-26Yarmouth52nd2nd0
2026-06-18Southwell55th5th0
2026-05-21Southwell52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0421/058/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
01/05/202611th22/10%0%0.00
18/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
21/05/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
18/06/20265th16/583%43%-0.40
26/06/20262nd10/147%75%+0.28
08/07/20267th17/255%14%-0.41
24/07/20265th16/116%50%+0.34
31/08/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38