8
Insuspense
4yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |