Moira Express
3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 67
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Nottingham | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +16.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 07/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |