12
Overbudget
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 61
Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 30/100 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |