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6

Storm Esme

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 3 · OR 67

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Bet Smarter Fillies' Handicap · 6f 16y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to form (cheekpieces refitted) to land 14-runner handicap at Newcastle (6f) 31 days ago. Up 6 lb but travelled smoothly there and can go well again with headgear retained.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS4/1015 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 79 · 6f GS 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 79 par16/044OR 793 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 77 · 5f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 133 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 74 par2/065OR 745 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 7f50y Sft 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 133 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 67 par2/075OR 676 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 63 · 6f195y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 61 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 61 par5/095OR 61projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle51st1st0
2026-08-11Carlisle64th5th−1
2026-07-02Nottingham58th8th0
2026-06-20Ayr55th5th0
2026-06-02Pontefract58th8th0
2026-05-15York315th13th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1015/052/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/202511th11/142%29%-0.14
14/10/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
16/04/20267th5/174%50%-0.24
15/05/202615th40/10%13%+0.13
02/06/20268th14/126%0%-0.26
20/06/20265th17/255%43%-0.12
02/07/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
11/08/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
05/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47