5

Hellcat

3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 51

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden but she bounced back to form with third of 9 in handicap over C&D 10 days ago. Needs to reproduce it here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 03/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0553 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Thirsk 15/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 64 · 6f Sft 134 · below its mark15/09/2025 · OR 64 par15/096OR 646 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 60 · 5f8y Goo 135 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 58 · 6f20y Std 128 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 par8/056OR 586 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 58 · 6f2y Goo 128 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 129 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 55 par7/076OR 556 @ Windsor 24/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 54 · 6f12y Goo 125 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 52 · 4f214y Std 124 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 52 par26/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-08-24Windsor69th9th0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-06-14Doncaster612th12th0
2026-05-08Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-04-18Nottingham69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0518/047/0726/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20253rd33/10%71%+0.71
26/07/20258th22/10%0%0.00
15/09/202510th40/10%10%+0.10
18/04/20269th25/10%50%+0.50
08/05/20263rd33/10%60%+0.60
14/06/202612th18/15%15%+0.10
07/07/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
24/08/20269th66/10%0%0.00
26/09/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75