IvyArcIvyArc
4

Khabib

8yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 1 · OR 52

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a long losing sequence but he arrives in good nick, third of 8 in 5f handicap at Newcastle 11 days ago. This C&D winner can make his presence felt off a 2 lb lower mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 03/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2024 · OR 75 par3/084OR 754 @ Thirsk 16/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2024 · OR 73 par4 @ Beverley 25/08/2024 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2024 · OR 73 par25/084OR 734 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 66 par16/065OR 666 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f Goo 136 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 57 · 5f Std 127 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 57 par3/096OR 576 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 54 par25/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-09-19Newcastle64th4th0
2026-09-03Newcastle67th7th0
2026-08-01Thirsk69th9th0
2026-06-16Thirsk58th7th+1
2026-05-02Thirsk49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/082/053/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20244th13/266%63%-0.03
16/08/20242nd9/276%88%+0.11
25/08/202414th9/276%13%-0.63
02/05/20269th40/10%0%0.00
16/06/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
01/08/20269th33/10%0%0.00
03/09/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
19/09/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
25/09/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08