IvyArcIvyArc
8

Kohana Girl

5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 45

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still looking for a first win. Off 15 months, shaped as if in need of the run when a fading fifth of 12 in handicap over C&D 19 days ago. Can build on it now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 30/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 4f217y Goo 121 · beat its mark30/05/2024 · OR 45 par30/056OR 456 @ Doncaster 16/06/2024 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 46 · 5f3y GS 123 · beat its mark16/06/2024 · OR 46 par6 @ Yarmouth 17/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 46 · 5f42y Gd 124 · beat its mark17/07/2024 · OR 46 par17/076OR 466 @ Lingfield 05/09/2024 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 45 · 5f6y Std 130 · beat its mark05/09/2024 · OR 45 par5 @ Southwell 08/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 44 · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2024 · OR 44 par8/105OR 445 @ Southwell 13/12/2024 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 48 · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2024 · OR 48 par6 @ Nottingham 29/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 48 · 6f18y Goo 125 · beat its mark29/04/2025 · OR 48 par29/046OR 486 @ Southwell 17/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 46 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark17/06/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 46 · 4f214y Std 127 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 46 par17/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell65th5th0
2025-06-17Southwell65th5th0
2025-04-29Nottingham610th10th0
2024-12-13Southwell58th7th+1
2024-10-08Southwell52nd1st+1
2024-09-05Lingfield65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/055/0929/0417/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20243rd16/116%67%+0.51
16/06/202411th7/163%9%-0.54
17/07/20243rd12/137%67%+0.30
05/09/20245th10/147%20%-0.27
08/10/20242nd40/10%75%+0.75
13/12/20248th18/15%36%+0.31
29/04/202510th50/10%0%0.00
17/06/20255th66/10%50%+0.50
17/09/20265th66/10%64%+0.64