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11

Lochaber

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 45

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#11

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Only success came at Beverley (5f) in May 2024 and he's failed to beat a rival on his last 3 runs.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 13/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 53 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark13/11/2024 · OR 53 par13/116OR 536 @ Southwell 03/01/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark03/01/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 47 · 6f20y Std 127 · beat its mark18/01/2025 · OR 47 par18/016OR 476 @ Southwell 07/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark07/02/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 06/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 43 · 5f160y Gd 135 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 43 par6/066OR 436 @ Lingfield 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 41 · 5f6y Std 135 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 41 par6 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 45 · 5f6y Std 116 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 45 par1/096OR 456 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 45 · 5f10y GS 126 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ffos Las 27/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 45 par27/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Ffos Las611th11th0
2026-09-13Bath613th13th0
2026-09-01Lingfield65th5th0
2026-08-25Lingfield65th5th0
2025-06-06Bath64th4th0
2025-02-07Southwell68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/117/021/0927/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/11/20249th20/10%11%+0.11
03/01/202512th66/10%0%0.00
18/01/20256th33/10%17%+0.17
07/02/20258th50/10%13%+0.13
06/06/20254th18/15%67%+0.61
25/08/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
01/09/20265th22/10%0%0.00
13/09/202613th40/10%0%0.00
27/09/202611th50/10%0%0.00