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9

Poetic Jack

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 10 · OR 45

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now eighteen runs since his last win in 2024 and he came in last of 6 in 5f classified event at Wolverhampton in July. Lots more is needed after a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 46 · 6f Std 119 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 46 par30/106OR 466 @ Chelmsford City 08/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 46 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark08/01/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Chelmsford City 29/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 48 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 48 par29/016OR 486 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 48 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 47 · 4f214y Std 124 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 47 par15/046OR 476 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 46 · 6f1y Std 126 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 45 · 5f8y Goo 126 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 45 par19/056OR 456 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 44 · 5f60y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 44 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 44 par31/076OR 44projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-06-09Brighton66th6th0
2026-05-19Nottingham66th6th0
2026-04-30Lingfield68th8th0
2026-04-15Southwell64th4th0
2026-02-26Chelmsford City64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1026/0219/0531/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20253rd11/142%60%+0.18
08/01/20262nd9/488%91%+0.03
29/01/20265th18/581%33%-0.48
26/02/20264th3/184%67%-0.18
15/04/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
30/04/20268th10/382%22%-0.60
19/05/20266th16/116%58%+0.43
09/06/20266th15/261%29%-0.32
31/07/20266th6/168%0%-0.68