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2

Popular Dream

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9 · OR 55

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a fourth C&D win in January. Off 4 months, back in good nick of late and didn't enjoy a smooth passage when a close fifth of 10 over C&D 3 days ago. Bold showing on the cards turned out quickly off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 63 · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 63 par13/015OR 634 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 4f214y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 66 par7/025OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 63 · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 63 par10/035OR 636 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 61 · 4f214y Std 131 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 59 · 4f214y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 59 par21/055OR 596 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 57 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Southwell 03/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 55 · 4f214y Std 126 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 55 par3/106OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03Southwell65th5th0
2026-09-26Southwell64th4th0
2026-05-21Southwell59th8th+1
2026-03-28Southwell68th8th0
2026-03-10Southwell56th5th+1
2026-02-27Wolverhampton56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0127/0221/053/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
17/01/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
07/02/20266th6/168%38%-0.31
27/02/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
10/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
28/03/20268th5/174%30%-0.44
21/05/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
26/09/20264th22/10%63%+0.63
03/10/20265th12/137%56%+0.19