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7

Tommie's Angel

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 46

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap · 4f 214y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a step forward in first-time tongue tie (retained) with third of 12 in handicap over C&D 19 days ago. Needs considering eased 1 lb in her bid for a maiden success.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f16y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/0544 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0544 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 7f1y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/0546 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 52 · 5f21y Std 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 52 par30/076OR 526 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 50 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 50 par3/096OR 506 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 47 · 4f214y Std 127 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 47 par17/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-09-03Newcastle67th7th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-05-30Chester411th9th+2
2026-05-22Pontefract47th5th+2
2026-05-07Southwell44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0522/0530/0530/073/0917/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/05/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
22/05/20267th50/10%14%+0.14
30/05/202611th100/10%0%0.00
30/07/20265th18/15%43%+0.38
03/09/20267th25/10%0%0.00
17/09/20263rd28/10%82%+0.82