Affettuoso

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 5 · OR 84

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

53%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.5

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Lingfield	3	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2026-06-09	Carlisle	4	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-12-06	Wolverhampton	5	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-10-24	Doncaster	2	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 75/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +23.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/10/2025	5th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
06/12/2025	2nd	5/6	96%	83%	-0.12
09/06/2026	5th	3/1	84%	64%	-0.21
12/09/2026	1st	1/9	99%	100%	+0.01