Cliff Danger

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 3 · OR 76

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.8

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Southwell	3	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-08-16	Southwell	4	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-07-05	Southwell	5	9th	10th	−1	1.0
2026-06-18	Southwell	4	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-05-19	Nottingham	3	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-04-26	Wetherby	4	6th	6th	0	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 61/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength73%

Delivery trend -9.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/04/2026	6th	40/1	0%	29%	+0.29
19/05/2026	4th	80/1	0%	67%	+0.67
18/06/2026	7th	18/1	5%	50%	+0.45
05/07/2026	9th	16/1	16%	38%	+0.23
16/08/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
22/09/2026	4th	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10