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Nochebuena

3yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 1 · OR 87

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Study of Man filly got off the mark in novice at Doncaster in June and advanced that form when runner-up on handicap bow at Ascot (1½m) in July. Run best ignored (hampered and lost ground early) when ninth of 10 back at Doncaster 25 days ago. Remains one to be interested in.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f Sta 12810/1253 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m2f42y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0533 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m3f197y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS14/0633 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m3f211y GF 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 82 par10/073OR 822 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m3f197y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 87 par11/092OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster29th7th+2
2026-07-10Ascot32nd1st+1
2026-06-14Doncaster31st0th+1
2026-05-22Haydock32nd1st+1
2025-12-10Kempton54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1222/0514/0610/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -13.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20254th13/266%57%-0.09
22/05/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
14/06/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
10/07/20262nd15/890%83%-0.07
11/09/20269th9/276%11%-0.65