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5

Fleur De Mer

6yo Mare · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 57

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Each Way Extra Places Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since 2023. Best run this season when second at Newcastle in August but only fifth of 6 in handicap at Catterick (1¾m, good) since. Handily weighted if back on her A-game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 1m5f219y Std 138 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 62 par27/126OR 625 @ Southwell 22/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m6f21y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 60 · 1m6f21y Std 136 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 60 par11/026OR 605 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m4f5y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m7f Sft 137 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par19/066OR 606 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 1m3f39y Goo 141 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Catterick 04/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 57 · 1m7f189y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 57 par4/086OR 576 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 56 · 1m4f98y Std 140 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 58 · 1m5f192y Goo 150 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 58 par8/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick65th5th0
2026-08-20Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-08-04Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-07-09Carlisle64th4th0
2026-06-19Ayr66th6th0
2026-04-07Pontefract53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/127/044/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength35%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20253rd9/153%80%+0.27
22/01/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
11/02/20262nd11/271%75%+0.04
07/04/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27
19/06/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
09/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26
04/08/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
20/08/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
08/09/20265th11/271%20%-0.51