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4

Norflondonforever

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 3 · OR 60

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Each Way Extra Places Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark at Kempton (1m) last April. Has steadily found his form again after a 13-month absence and posted a solid fourth of 12 in handicap at Wolverhampton (9.5f) 3 weeks ago. Not dismissed off a slipping mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 21/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m13y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS21/0355 @ Leicester 04/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 70 · 1m53y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Kempton 15/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 67 · 1m Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2025 · OR 67 par15/045OR 675 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m2f42y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 67 par14/065OR 676 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m2f GF 135 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 63 · 1m3f24y Std 133 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 63 par6/086OR 636 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m2f Std 154 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m1f104y Std 138 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 61 par15/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-09-01Lingfield67th7th0
2026-08-06Southwell64th4th0
2026-07-20Windsor611th11th0
2026-06-14Salisbury512th11th+1
2026-05-22Haydock58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0322/056/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20256th50/10%44%+0.44
04/04/20254th9/153%40%-0.13
15/04/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
22/05/20268th10/147%13%-0.35
14/06/202612th25/10%8%+0.08
20/07/202611th25/10%0%0.00
06/08/20264th25/10%70%+0.70
01/09/20267th11/271%33%-0.38
15/09/20264th5/174%73%-0.01