IvyArcIvyArc
2

Risen Again

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9 · OR 60

Southwell · bettingsites.co.uk Each Way Extra Places Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back in good form for his current yard when twice runner-up at Yarmouth and Chepstow in August. Blinkers replaced cheekpieces worn there when only ninth of 10 in handicap at Bath (1m, good to soft) last time. Could bounce with cheekpieces now refitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 03/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 1m2f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 71 par3/095OR 715 @ Wolverhampton 18/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 71 · 1m1f104y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m5f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 70 par21/025OR 705 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 66 · 1m31y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 66 par7/055OR 665 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 64 · 1m3f209y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Yarmouth 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 61 · 1m2f23y GF 133 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 61 par2/086OR 616 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 1m14y GF 130 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 61 par13/095OR 61projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath59th8th+1
2026-08-18Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-08-02Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-06-04Ffos Las56th5th+1
2026-05-07Windsor56th5th+1
2026-04-05Bath511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/095/042/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20252nd11/271%88%+0.16
18/10/20256th14/126%38%+0.11
21/02/202612th33/10%0%0.00
05/04/202611th28/10%0%0.00
07/05/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
04/06/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
02/08/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
18/08/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30
13/09/20269th22/10%11%+0.11